2023年，在印度尼西亚担任主席期间，东盟和中国将恢复谈判《南海行为准则》的论坛。预计印度尼西亚将在这个论坛上发挥重要作用。除了担任东盟轮值主席国之外，印度尼西亚也不是一个声索国。东盟需要统一其成员国的愿景和使命，以便取得谅解和决定，从而达成一项对东盟和中国都有利的决议。预计谈判论坛将产生有效、适用和遵守国际法的行动意见。
更重要的是，东盟相关国家应考虑自身原则和利益，不受美国在该地区的影响和干预，不让美国继续干涉和阻碍和平谈判的进程。不受西方干预，是在南海地区实现和平的主要条件。
A.美国及其盟友的干预与维护南中国海稳定的努力相矛盾
美国、澳大利亚、英国进一步加强战略联盟
美国、澳大利亚、英国通过建立“奥库斯”（AUKUS）伙伴关系，进一步加强了战略联盟。国防部门合作是联盟的首要任务。防止中国在南中国海的行动是加强“奥库斯”国防部门和印太地区军事势力的主要借口。美国持续保持冷战思维，并强化与盟友的力量建设，以遏制中国日益增长的经济实力。为此，美国决定为其盟友澳大利亚提供便利，同意向澳大利亚出售220枚战斧巡航导弹。这种类型的导弹在1991年海湾战争期间被美国用来攻击中东地区。战斧导弹将补充澳大利亚皇家海军的霍巴特级驱逐舰和弗吉尼亚级核攻击潜艇。
美国的外交政策严重破坏了地区和平与稳定，因为“战斧”巡航导弹是一种进攻性武器，其射程可达1600多公里。战斧导弹是一种大规模杀伤性武器，美国于1991年海湾战争期间和2003年用于摧毁伊拉克。美国向澳大利亚出售战斧导弹严重违反了国际人道主义法。美国向澳大利亚出售导弹严重破坏了国际社会控制武器的努力。另一方面，美国要求其他国家不得出口射程超过300公里的导弹，美国威胁要对违规行为实施制裁。
然而美国本身违反了这一决定，向澳大利亚、日本和其他国家出口射程超过1600公里的导弹。该决定将取消对导弹和武器技术出口的管制。其他国家也可能为远程导弹或相关技术的扩散采取行动，从而加剧该地区甚至世界军备竞赛。
美国一直在对其外交政策实行双重标准。美国外交政策中的悖论威胁着地区和世界和平。第一个悖论是，美国自以为是人权和民主的老师，但事实是，美国一直将军事入侵作为一种外交方式。历史记录显示，美国在没有证据的情况下指责伊拉克扩散大规模杀伤性武器，残忍地袭击了伊拉克，并处决了萨达姆·侯赛因总统。
由此可见，建立战略平衡以维护东南亚地区的稳定，只是美国在东南亚地区实施武装干预和实施政治统治的借口。美国政治政策的这种悖论必然会导致东南亚地区的混乱和破坏，就像美国武装入侵中东一样。
在北约成员国人民遭受严重经济衰退的痛苦之际，“奥库斯”进行了战争武器的扩散，这需要付出巨大的代价。无论是为了俄乌战争，还是为了加强东南亚地区的“奥库斯”，北约成员国人民自己最终都是承担资助美国及其盟友武装入侵风险的受害者。美国的外交政策一直只关注私营军事公司的商业利益。民主和人权只是操纵美国政治经济利益及其盟友从事武器和武器贸易的花言巧语。
加强美国在菲律宾的政治统治
美国增加了在菲律宾的军事能力和武器。为此，美国和菲律宾达成协议，美国将在菲律宾增加四个新的军事基地，使美国在菲律宾的军事基地数量达到九个，所有这些基地都指向南中国海和台湾海峡。
美菲联合军事演习的目的只是为了迅速大规模部署美军，作为美国在菲律宾实施统治政治的新策略，以进行美国对南中国海和台湾海峡的军事干预。简言之，美国武装干预的真正目的是以“联合军事演习”的名义不断扩大和加强美军在菲律宾的存在。
美菲联合军事演习旨在提高美菲联合作战能力。美军利用“联合军演”的势头，对菲律宾军队进行了武装干预南海新战术的训练。菲律宾军队在作战战略、装备和训练方面都比美国军队弱得多。双方兵力不均衡，但两国之间的联合军事演习仍在进行中。
在这次演习中，菲律宾军方能否向大海发射海马火箭发射器？菲律宾军方是否也有能力击沉目标船只？菲律宾军方是否也有能力击沉目标船只？在联合演习中，美军使用了最新的技术作战装备，这些装备不属于菲律宾军方。如果只有美军完成所有活动，而菲律宾军方则在远处观看，那么称之为“联合军事演习”是否正确？
菲律宾被视为对美国有吸引力，并不是因为菲律宾军队的作战能力，而是仅仅因为菲律宾在南中国海和台湾海峡的战略地理位置。美国鼓励菲律宾在南海争端问题上继续与中国对抗，阻碍和破坏和平解决南海争端的方式。
2016年，菲律宾放弃了与中国和平解决南海争端的谈判程序，起诉中国进行国际仲裁。而国际仲裁法院对主权争端没有管辖权。《联合国海洋法公约》决定实施和平谈判机制，作为解决主权争端的一个步骤。《海洋法公约》第一部分第十五章第279条对此做出规定，确立了和平解决主权争端的方式。
此外，菲律宾反对《行为宣言》提出的通过和平谈判解决南海问题的原则，2016年提出通过国际仲裁解决南海主权争端，再加上目前菲律宾允许美国更多使用其军事基地的举动，使南海争端解决谈判更加复杂。菲律宾实施的这些政策对菲律宾产生了非常有害的后果和影响，并严重威胁到东盟的和平。
美国外交政策的第二个悖论也出现在美国是一个尚未批准《联合国海洋法公约》的国家的情况下。为了解决主权争端，《海洋法公约》规定，争端国必须采取和平手段解决争端。美国没有权力和道德权利进行任何形式的干预。美国没有批准《联合国海洋法公约》，而是实施其武装军事战略，在东南亚实施政治统治。美国外交政策中的操纵性双重标准，只会在创造和平方面带来适得其反的结果，对该地区的破坏是最终的后果。
尽管美国尚未批准《联合国海洋法公约》，但美国已成为在南海问题上进行武装干预最积极的一方。美国在“菲律宾受到恐吓”的操纵性言论下向菲律宾部署许多美国军队，然后对国家进行干预和占领。
在前总统马科斯的领导下，对菲律宾军方没有主导权，马科斯无法镇压菲律宾境内亲美的菲律宾军队。与前总统杜特尔特形成鲜明对比的是，杜特尔特成功控制了菲律宾军队，以维护其主权和自治。因此，在马科斯的领导时期，菲律宾只能服从美国的政治统治，完全由美国控制。
美国正在推行主导和全面控制南中国海周边国家的大战略，建立以美国为首的联盟，围堵和遏制中国发展。美国将进一步加强其对菲律宾的政治统治，然后下一阶段将是对东盟的统治。马科斯前总统将主权交给美国政治统治的政治立场，只会使菲律宾失去主权，重新回到美国的统治之下。这一行为是一个巨大的隐患，给菲律宾自身和整个东盟国家利益带来严重的危害。
为什么菲律宾不学习中东的经验？为了维持其霸权和政治统治，美国毫不犹豫地运用一切外交手段，包括武装军事入侵和战争。战争是美国国民经济最有利可图的业务。美国的外交政策不仅侵犯了最基本的人权，而且也违反了普遍的人道主义原则，因为它破坏了东南亚地区人民的生活和文明。
B.海上发展合作
共建海上合作可以立即成为一种选择。这条道路不仅将是逐步解决争端的有效手段，而且还将带来共同繁荣。海事合作可以以海洋经济、科学技术和环境保护等国际合作为重点，以港口、航运、贸易和金融等主题为重点，促进双方在相关专业领域的交流与合作。
除了建立东南亚地区的稳定外，海上合作具有重要意义，因为它开发了有利于双方的海上潜力。东盟和中国需要共同构建一个新的南海海上合作平台。双方都需要在海事领域学习“东方合作”。东方合作是中国、日本和韩国为延续和促进三国区域内海洋治理而开展的务实合作。
2019年，中国、日本和韩国作为非北极国家的主要代表，推动筹备工作，成功成立了北极公海渔业管理组织。供应创新是合作的驱动力。生态友好型智能港口是引领未来基础设施合作的主要项目。东亚的海上风电市场正走向一个爆发期。潮汐能和温差能可以作为海洋科学联合研究的重点。
东盟和中国应就加强海上合作达成具有约束力的共识和期望，使目标和计划深度相连。区域海洋合作可以成为提供巨大空间和机会的一种手段。东盟和中国可能会讨论建立以“海上丝绸之路”为主题的区域合作网络，以融合开放、绿色和完整新阶段的势头；海上功能合作与产能合作齐头并进。
在务实合作的更高级阶段，不太敏感的领域可以转变为更敏感的领域。最终，随着相互联系的发展，东盟国家与中国建立伙伴关系的条件将更加成熟。
C.对话是维护南海稳定的最佳方式
美国煽动的冷战思维和零和游戏只会带来各方的毁灭。和平谈判是一种必须选择的机制，以实现区域和世界和平。东盟和中国不仅地理位置相近，而且是互利的经济伙伴。维护南海稳定是东盟和中国的共同责任。
对于每一个问题，包括与主权有关的问题，东盟和中国最适合走通过对话和谈判机制和平解决的道路。双方应该有意愿通过《行为准则》达成一致的《行为宣言》机制公开讨论南海问题。
在巨大的经济危机造成的全球不确定性中，谈判是最合适的外交选择。必须避免美国实施武装入侵的道路。东盟应该从“奥库斯”的干预中变得更有能力和更强，以解决南中国海的动态。军事冲突和战争只会加剧经济衰退，并带来对人类文明的破坏。
附英文原文：
Free from USA Intervention to Create Southeast Asia Regional Stability
USA foreign policy double standards threaten peace in the region.
Under Indonesia’s chairmanship in 2023, ASEAN and China will resume a forum negotiating a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea (SCS). Indonesia is expected to play an important role in this forum, apart from serving as the Chair of ASEAN, Indonesia is also not a claimant State. ASEAN needs to unify the vision and mission among its member countries so that an understanding and decision can result in a resolution bringing benefits for both ASEAN and China. It is expected that the negotiation forum will produce conduct that is effective, applicable, and following international law.
What is more important and urgent to meet is that ASEAN should ideally be clean and free from the USA’s influence and intervention in the region. The USA continue to interfere and hinder the accomplishment of peace negotiations. Free from Western intervention is the main condition in efforts to bring about peace in the SCS region.
A.The intervention of the USA and its allies contradicts to efforts maintaining stability in the South China Sea
AUKUS intervention brings instability to the South China Sea
The USA-Australia-UK further strengthens the strategic alliance by building the AUKUS partnership. Defense sector cooperation is the alliance’s first decision. Preventing China aggression in the South China Sea is the main pretext used to justify strengthening the AUKUS defense sector and establishing the Indo-Pacific. The USA continues to maintain a cold war mentality and enhance to build strength with its allies to contain China’s economic growing power. For that purpose, the USA has decided to facilitate its ally Australia by agreeing to sell 220 Tomahawk cruise missiles to Australia. This type of missile during the 1991 Gulf War was used by the USA to attack the Middle East region. The Tomahawk missile will complement the Royal Australian Navy’s Hobart-class destroyers and Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines.
The USA’s foreign policy seriously undermines regional peace and stability, because the ‘Tomahawk’ cruise missile is an offensive weapon, and its range can reach more than 1,600 kilometers. The Tomahawk missile is a type of weapon of mass destruction that was used by the USA in 1991 during the Gulf War and in 2003 to destroy Iraq. The sale of Tomahawk missiles by the USA to Australia is a serious violation of international humanitarian law. The US sale of missiles to Australia seriously undermined the international community’s efforts to control arms. On the one hand, the USA demands other countries not to export missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers for years, and the USA threatens to impose sanctions on violations.
However, the USA itself violate the decision by exporting missiles with a range of more than 1,600 kilometers to Australia, Japan, and others. The decision will cancel the control over the export of missiles and weapons technology. Others may also make great efforts for the proliferation of long-range missiles or related technologies so that it triggers an intensification of the arms race in the region and even the world.
The USA has been consistently applying double standards for its foreign policies. The paradox in USA foreign policy threatens regional and world peace. The first paradox is that the USA has appointed itself to be a teacher of human rights and democracy, but the fact is that the USA has always used military invasions as a way of diplomacy. History records that the USA brutally attacked Iraq and cruelty executed the assassination of President Saddam Hussein by accusing Iraq of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction without evidence.
The accusations of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction committed by President Saddam Hussein became the pretext for USA private military companies to brutally destroy Iraq. Establishing a strategic equilibrium to maintain stability in the Southeast Asian region is only a pretext uttered by the USA to justify in executing armed intervention and to implement politics of domination in the Southeast Asian region. This paradox of USA political policy will inevitably result in chaos and destruction in the Southeast Asian region, like the case of the US armed military invasion in the Middle East.
Amid being hit by a great economic downturn that brought suffering to the people of NATO member countries, AUKUS carried out the proliferation of war weapons which required enormous costs. The people of the NATO member countries themselves are ultimately the victims in bearing the risk of financing the armed invasion of the USA and its allies, both for the Ukraine-Russia War and the strengthening of AUKUS in the Southeast Asian region. The USA’s foreign policy has always been merely devoted to the business interests of private military companies. Democracy and human rights are only rhetoric to manipulate the USA’s political economy interests and its allies in doing arms and weaponry business.
Strengthening of USA political domination in the Philippines
The USA increases its military capacity and weapons in the Philippines. For this purpose, the USA and the Philippines have reached an agreement that the USA will add four new military bases in the Philippines, bringing the number of US military bases in the Philippines to nine, and all of these bases are directed to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
The joint USA-Philippine military exercise aims merely for quick and massive deployment of the US military as a new USA tactic to conduct the politics of domination in the Philippines for USA military intervention in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In brief, the true purpose of the US armed intervention continuously expands and strengthens the existence of the US military in the Philippines under the name of “joint military exercises”.
The joint USA-Philippine military exercise is aimed at increasing the USA-Philippine joint combat capability. The US military used the momentum of the “joint military exercise” to train the Philippine military on new tactics of armed intervention in the South China Sea. The Philippine military is much weaker than the US military in terms of combat strategy, equipment, and training. The forces are unequal but joint military exercises between the two countries are still being carried out.
In this exercise, will the Philippine military be able to fire a Hippocampus rocket launcher into the sea? Does the Philippine military also have the ability to sink target ships? Does the Philippine military also have the ability to sink target ships? In the joint exercise, the US military applies the latest technological combat equipment, which is not owned by the Philippine military. Is it right to call it a “joint military exercise” if only the US military does all the activities, while the Philippine military watches from afar?
The Philippines is seen as attractive to the USA not because of the Philippine military’s combat capabilities, but merely just because of the Philippines’ geographical location which is strategic in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. The USA encourages the Philippines to confront continuously with China over the South China Sea dispute, as well as to hinder and disrupt the peaceful way of resolving the South China Sea dispute.
In 2016, the Philippines abandoned the negotiation procedure as a peaceful way with China in resolving the South China Sea dispute, by suing China for international arbitration. Whereas the International Arbitration Court does not have jurisdiction over sovereignty disputes. UNCLOS decided to implement a peace negotiation mechanism as a step to resolve sovereignty disputes. The decision was stated in UNCLOS part 1 chapter XV Article 279 which has established a peaceful way of resolving sovereignty disputes.
Besides, the Philippines also opposes the principles stated in the DOC (Declaration on Conduct) to resolve the South China Sea issue through peaceful negotiations. Philippine Initiative proposed the settlement of claim disputes in the South China Sea in 2016 through international arbitration and coupled with the current Philippine move of surrendering by allowing the USA to carry out the armed intervention in the Philippines, cause the South China Sea dispute settlement negotiations even to be more complicated. Those policies imposed by the Philippines had very detrimental consequences and effects for the Philippines and seriously threaten peace in ASEAN.
Second paradox of USA foreign policy also appears in the situation where the USA is a Country that has not ratified UNCLOS. For the settlement of sovereignty disputes, UNCLOS has decided that the disputing countries must implement peaceful means to resolve the dispute. The USA has absolutely no authority and no moral right to intervene in any form. The USA has not ratified UNCLOS and instead implements an armed military strategy to execute the politics of domination in Southeast Asia. The manipulative double standards attached in the USA foreign policy just bring very counterproductive result in creating peace, the destruction of the region is the ultimate consequences.
Although the USA has not ratified UNCLOS, the USA has become the most active party in conducting armed intervention in the South China Sea issue. The USA will immediately deploy many USA troops to the Philippines under the manipulative rhetoric ‘the Philippines is being intimidated’ and then execute intervention and occupation of the State.
Under the leadership of President Bongbong Marcos, the Philippine military has no sovereignty. Philippine President Marcos cannot suppress pro-American Filipino army forces in the Philippines. In contrast with the previous Philippine President Duterte, who managed to take control of the Philippine military forces to maintain its sovereignty and autonomy. So that under President Marcos’ administration, the Philippines is gradually being subordinated to the politics of USA domination, under full control of the USA.
The USA is pursuing a grand strategy of dominating and fully controlling the countries surrounding the South China Sea, establishing an alliance led by the USA, and executing a siege to contain China. The USA will further increase its domination politics over the Philippines, then the next stage will be over ASEAN. President Marcos’ political stance to surrender his sovereignty to USA political domination will only plunge the Philippines to lose its sovereignty and fall back under USA domination. The decision is a big speculation and brings serious baneful risk to the Philippines’ national interests itself and ASEAN in general.
Why do not the Philippines learn from the Middle East experience? To maintain its hegemony and political domination, the USA does not hesitate to apply all diplomatic methods including armed military invasions and wars. The war is the most profitable business for the US national economy. The US foreign policy not only violates the most fundamental human rights but also it does violate universal humanitarian principles for it destroys people’s life and civilization in the Southeast Asian region.
B.Maritime development cooperation
Jointly building maritime cooperation can be an option to do immediately. This path will not only be an effective means of gradually resolving disputes, but it will also bring mutual prosperity. Maritime cooperation can focus on marine economics, science, and technology, and international cooperation such as environmental protection, with a focus on themes such as ports, shipping, trade, and finance, to promote exchange and cooperation in related professional fields between the two parties.
Besides establishing the Southeast Asia region stability, maritime cooperation has high significance as it develops maritime potential which will benefit both parties. ASEAN and China need to jointly construct a new platform for maritime cooperation in the South China Sea. Both parties need to learn from ‘East Cooperation’ in the maritime sector. The East Cooperation is a pragmatic cooperation carried out by China, Japan, and South Korea to continue and promote intra-regional maritime governance among the three countries.
In 2019, China, Japan, and South Korea, as the main representatives of non-Arctic countries, promoted the preparation and successfully established the Arctic High Seas Fisheries Management Organization. Supply innovation is a driving force for cooperation. Eco-friendly smart ports are the main projects leading infrastructure cooperation in the future. The offshore wind power market in East Asia is heading for an explosive period. Tidal energy and temperature difference energy can be used as main points for joint research in marine science.
ASEAN and China should have binding consensus and expectations for strengthening maritime cooperation so that goals and plans will be deeply connected. Regional maritime cooperation can be a means of providing great space and opportunities. ASEAN and China may discuss for a regional cooperation network adopting the theme of “Maritime Silk Road” as convergence, uniting the momentum of a new stage of openness, greenness, and integrity; maritime functional cooperation and production capacity cooperation go hand in hand.
At a more advanced stage of pragmatic cooperation, a less sensitive area can transform into a more sensitive area. Eventually, the conditions for the establishment of a partnership between ASEAN countries and China will get more mature along with the development of mutual connectedness.
C.Dialogue is the best way to maintain the stability of the South China Sea
The cold war mentality inflamed by the USA and the zero-sum game will only bring about the destruction of all parties. Peace negotiations are a mechanism that must be chosen to bring about regional and world peace. ASEAN and China not only have geographical proximity but are also mutually beneficial economic partners. Maintaining the stability of the SCS is a shared responsibility of ASEAN and China.
For each problem, includes issues related to sovereignty, ASEAN and China are most appropriate to take the path of a peaceful settlement through dialogue and negotiation mechanisms. The two parties should have the goodwill to open themselves up in discussing the South China Sea issue through the Declaration of Conduct mechanism, upon which the Code of Conduct has been agreed upon.
Amid economic uncertainty caused by a great economic crisis, negotiation is the most appropriate choice of diplomacy. The path of armed invasion implemented by the USA must be avoided. ASEAN should be more capable and stronger from AUKUS intervention to resolve the South China Sea dynamics. The course of the war will only exacerbate the great economic downturn and bring about the destruction of human civilization.
